Who’s In and Who’s Out? OWL Season 1 Playoffs Preview and Predictions for Week 4

 

As we are in the last two weeks of the Season 1 of Overwatch League, the final rankings are becoming clear, and teams that are in and out of the playoffs are slowly being set.

Here is what we know for sure:

- New York Excelsior is in

- San Francisco Shock, Dallas Fuel, Florida Mayhem and Shanghai Dragons are out

 

That leaves 7 remaining teams to contest for the remaining 5 spots of the playoffs. Based on rough calculations, a team needs minimum 23 wins to make it to the playoffs. This means that:

- London Spitfire will most likely make it to the playoffs as they already have 23 wins. They will most likely finish off the season as 3rd place as long as they can defeat Florida Mayhem in week 5 because of their high map differential.

- Los Angeles Valiant will most likely make it to the playoffs as they are leading the Pacific Division by a fairly large margin.

- Los Angeles Gladiators will most likely make it to the playoffs as they are looking dominant compared to the remaining teams. They just need 2 wins to secure a spot and they are facing some of the easier matches next couple of weeks. They will be facing London Spitfire, Shanghai Dragons and Seoul Dynasty.

- Houston Outlaws will most likely be OUT of the playoffs because they need to win 3 out of the 4 matches to make it to playoffs (they currently have 20 wins). They are facing Dallas Fuel, Los Angeles Valiant, Philadelphia Fusion and New York Excelsior, so it does not seem very likely.

- FUN FACT: it would be better for the remaining teams to finish the season as the 6th place rather than 5th place because they would face London Spitfire instead of Los Angeles Gladiators.

 

 

That means the race for the 2 remaining spots will be determined by the 3 teams that are in the race: Boston Uprising, Philadelphia Fusion and Seoul Dynasty.  


After two devastating losses against the New York Excelsior and the Los Angeles Gladiators, their chances of making it to the playoffs have become uncertain. Their remaining matches are San Francisco Shock, Seoul Dynasty, Houston Outlaws and London Spitfire. They will have to beat at least 3 of these matches to have a guaranteed spot. If they only beat two of the teams, they might have to go into a tiebreaker and lose with map differential because they are currently behind 5 maps against Seoul and Boston.


If Philadelphia Fusion beats San Francisco Shock this week, they could be in a pretty good spot. They are set to face two of the weaker teams in the league after that.


Boston Uprising is currently in the lead because of their 10-win streak in stage 3 but their terrible performance in stage 4 has put them in risk of not making it to the playoffs. However, their remaining matches are “relatively easy”. They will face off against Seoul Dynasty and Shanghai Dragons in week 4 and Florida Mayhem in week 5. With 22 wins, Boston only needs to beat at least 1 of these matches to make it to the playoffs and those chances are pretty good.


If Boston Uprising beats Seoul Dynasty this week, they will most likely secure a spot in the playoffs because they will be facing Shanghai Dragons next, and they will most likely finish the league with 24 wins.


Seoul Dynasty was off to a bad start in stage 4. They started off with 4 consecutive losses and falling out of the playoffs cutline. However, with a relatively easy week 3, they were able to finish the week by being in 5th place. In week 4 and 5, they will be facing some of the “tougher” matches and it will be a challenge for the Dynasty to make it to the playoffs. They will be facing off against Boston Uprising, Philadelphia Fusion, Dallas Fuel and Los Angeles Gladiators. Seoul will need a minimum of two wins to have a chance to make it to the playoffs. Even if they do get two wins, they might have to go on a tiebreaker and beat the other teams with higher map differential.

Seoul Dynasty must beat Boston Uprising this week to have a shot being in the playoffs because Boston is probably one of the easier matches for the rest of the season.  

 


Seoul Dynasty (21 – 15) vs. Boston Uprising (22 – 14) | June 6th @ 4 PM EST

This is a crucial match for the Seoul Dynasty. If they lose this match, that means they will have to beat both Philadelphia Fusion and Dallas Fuel to remain in the current playoff spot. This does not seem very likely due to their poor performance against Florida Mayhem. However, it does seem like Seoul Dynasty has a chance to beat Boston. Boston seems like they are in a worse spot this meta and Seoul Dynasty seem like they are adjusting faster than Boston. This should be a good match.


Los Angeles Gladiators (21 – 15) vs. New York Excelsior (32 – 3) | June 7th @ 6 PM EST

This match could potentially be a preview of the grand finals of season 1. At this moment, the finalist could be Los Angeles Valiant or the Los Angeles Gladiators along with New York Excelsior. These matches between the ‘LA’s have always been close, and it is possible for the Gladiators to be one of the grand finalists. For this match, however, the Gladiators might try not to put any effort into the match because they only 2 wins out of the next 4 matches. If they focus this week to beat the Spitfire instead, they could easily beat the Dragons, and/or the Dynasty and they should be able to secure a spot in the playoffs.


San Francisco Shock (16 – 20) vs. Philadelphia Fusion (21 – 15) | June 7th @ 8 PM EST

While Philadelphia had a rough week in week 3, the San Francisco Shock had a good one. By beating both Boston and Dallas Fuel, the San Francisco could put up a challenge for the Fusion. If Eqo does not recover from his wrist injury, it does not seem like the Philadelphia Fusion will take this match. If the Fusion take a loss, then their chances of making it to playoffs are very slim, as they could potentially finish off season 1 with 23 wins and they might not have enough map differential to beat Boston or Seoul.


Philadelphia Fusion (21 – 15) vs. Seoul Dynasty (21 – 15) | June 8th @ 8 PM EST

The outcome of this match could possibly determine the last two spots of the playoffs. Both teams have 21 wins and just need 2 more wins to make the minimum cutline. If they could take a win from this match, they could focus all their attention on taking just one more win for the playoffs. At this moment, it is not very clear who will take the win. While, Philadelphia Fusion has looked very dominant in week 1, they have been getting dominated in week 2 and 3. Their opponents in week 1 have been the weaker ones and it is entirely possible that the Fusion is just as bad as the Dynasty. If Eqo recovers from his injury, however, the Seoul Dynasty might fall here.


Dallas Fuel vs. Houston Outlaws | June 6th @ 8 PM EST

This match could be one of the most anticipated matches of the week as it will be the match that will give Dallas Fuel, victim of many months of memes and mockery, their final chance to take a win against their Texan rivals, Houston Outlaws. And it appears as though this will be their real first chance to do so. While the Dallas Fuel have been improving steadily improving, the Houston Outlaws seem like they are seriously struggling. While this match may not have an impact in the seasonal playoffs, it will impact the stage 4 playoffs. If Dallas could beat Houston Outlaws and the Florida Mayhem, they could potentially replace San Francisco Shock as the 4th team to make it to the stage 4 playoffs.

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Comments :1

  • 1

    level 1 Anna

    I don't know if the headline is a deliberate in & out reference or just accidental but it is amazing either way!

    Also very good, precise and most of all clear run down of the possibilities. Great overview, thank you for that!

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