The LEC's offseason roster shuffle has all but ended. Nearly all laning positions have been filled, new coaches have been flown in and the bootcamps for the 2020 Spring Split have begun. With so many changes, it's inevitable that team power rankings shift. But who has made the most improvements, and who's looking weaker than they were before?

We had a long talk with Jakob "YamatoCannon" Mebdi, who analyzed the topic. The Swedish former top laner, who has been coaching teams for almost five years now, went over the signings he liked most, and which team formula he has trouble seeing work out. He also explained why he is such a fan of hiring rookies, and discussed why, in esports, rosters are reworked so often.

Alright, let's start with the positive. When looking at the LEC transfers, which roster change stands out to you the most?

In terms of teams making big acquisitions, I would point to Origen. I think they've made very definitive, obvious upgrades. The jungle role is a position that currently is very slim, when it comes to Europe. Xerxe was probably the hottest free agent coming out of the World Championship. So I think for Origen with the Xerxe upgrade, and also getting Upset, things can only get better. With the question mark at how the support [Destiny] will do. I wouldn't say that I'm the best when it comes to the Oceanic region, but I trust the judgment of the management.

When you say that the jungle position is slim, do you mean that there aren't many good junglers in Europe, or is it more about free agents?

I think it's tough. There are some great junglers for sure. I think Inspired, Selfmade, Xerxe and Jankos are probably the four best junglers I can think of, for Europe. Is there anyone that stands out that I am missing?

Well we had Broxah, but he left, so I'm not sure if you want to count him or not.

Yeah, Broxah is definitely a good jungler. For sure. I would him up there. I guess we have Skeanz coming in as a rookie, Caedrel maybe can be good... But about Xerxe, even leaving aside that he's a jungler, the things I've heard good things about him in a team environment. The way he communicates, the way he comes across, the way he is in-game. Definitely the hottest free agent you've gotten in the offseason.

"I think Rogue made a fantastic acquisition by getting Hans Sama. I think he's currently in a better form than he has ever been in."

Schalke 04 recently added Gilius, what about him?

I haven't been paying attention to how well he has been doing in the German league. I've seen some scoreboards here and there. I feel like this alteration of Schalke is very similar to what it was last year. It was a very upset-centric team, with players that play more of a supportive style. I feel like Gilius has the most amount of success when he's playing the Gragas and he's taking on a shotcaller role, focussing on less mechanical champions. It fits the mold of what Trick wants to be. I think the competition is getting much tougher, so I think this recipe will not work as well for Schalke. When I think of the top rosters like Rogue, Origen, Fnatic and G2, I think it's going to be very tough for [Schalke] to break them.

So Origen would be the 'winner' of the offseason roster shuffles, to you?

I wouldn't say that they're going to automatically beat Rogue, Fnatic and G2. I think they're a winner in the sense of grabbing as much as possible in the offseason. I think Rogue made a fantastic acquisition by getting Hans Sama. I think he's currently in a better form than he has ever been in. I think he's hungry, and I think the atmosphere is going to fit him perfectly. I'm happy he has another opportunity to prove himself, after a rough year over at Misfits. When he made his comeback to play with the Academy team in the LEC, he had some very, very good games, so I'm excited about that.

Grabbing Xerxe and Upset in their transitional period was a big deal for Origen though. I think the other three teams that are at the top already hired the core of what they needed in order to make a successful roster.

Since I asked you who you think would be the winner of the offseason, I of course also have to ask you who you think came out bad after the roster shuffles.

I think the easiest one is Misfits. They have a lot of players that I know very little about, they have some players I know something about. I think they're going to struggle. If they reach Playoffs, I think they will have done well. I'm looking at MAD Lions, and I actually think their acquisitions will do quite well. I think there is a lot of risk here. There is a world where these guys cause some serious damage, but there is also a world where this falls flat because of the lack of experience. It's strange to say, because Humanoid was at the World Championship, and he had a very successful first year. I don't know if he's ready to take charge. I've heard rumors about some of the players on this roster being leaders in their former teams, so it's just speculation.

If I had to choose—which is very tough to do, because I think across the board there are some competitive teams here—I think probably SK, Misfits and Schalke would be at the bottom. But as I said it is really hard to judge.

You haven't touched on SK Gaming yet, why them?

Who is on SK, even?

Sacre, Trick, Jenax, Crownshot, and LIMIT. They finished their roster just yesterday.

That's just f*cked up. [Laughs] There's no way you're going to win an offseason when you wait until the end... It's Christmas soon, you know? People want to have a break. I think that's a disaster in itself. But I have to say, I like the bot lane they've put together.

I left Excel out of it, because I feel like they're a little bit better off than the others. They've made some upgrades, and I think they've made some serious progress last year. They had some fantastic early games at the hand of Caedrel, and I think together with YoungBuck they can definitely be consistent enough to beat the teams that are inconsistent. That's something we're going to see a lot of in the Spring Split, definitely.

Why do you think so?

I think they have a very good basis to work with, with the addition of YoungBuck. I think he can definitely put them in the right direction of figuring out the basics of winning a game and working together in good fashion. The Excel camp had a very good atmosphere last year. They were very happy with the progress they were making, and I think that's a big plus. I think Excel is a team that you cannot—and couldn't, last year—underestimate in any shape or form, even though they were at the bottom of the standings. So I think they have a very good base to work with. I think this is a team that could potentially reach the Playoffs.

There have been many signings of rookies this year. Why do you think that is happening?

I've been very heavy-handed with signing rookies. This has been my thing for a very long time. The reason why I would always is: unless you are going to sign players of which you know that they can be top players in their position, there's no reason not to take any risk. I think people are done with re-signing the same players over and over, who will secure Playoffs and nothing beyond that. I think there is no particular game in that. Teams just want to take risks in order to find the next big player, who is going to take the LEC by storm and then eventually the World Championship.

If you don't see the potential in your team to win it all, there is no reason to acquire the roster in the first place. Regional Playoffs are completely meaningless, at least to me, unless you want to go to the World Championship, and make a splash. You need to take risks unless you can sign, like, a Caps, a PerkZ, or a Xerxe. But there are maybe ten, fifteen players that are of this caliber. I like the idea of taking risks. I think we're going to see some flops, and some amazing players throughout the year. I still think it's the right approach to take some of these risks.

Something that I want to add too is that it's weird to call them rookies. The regional leagues are super intense. They are very serious, they are structured, they are looking to win a very serious competition. So it's not like they're coming in completely inexperienced. It was the same with Nemesis when he joined Fnatic. People were calling him a rookie—which by definition is true. But he came off the back of a very intense season.

Well with the term rookie, people talk about inexperience on the big stage, in this context.

I think it's part of the reason why teams are willing to take risks, because those risks are relatively small compared to what they used to be. In the past you had no regional leagues, and I think those are a big reason why teams are taking these steps. You can analyze players in important games they played. It goes hand in hand.

You mentioned that you don't build a roster if you don't see them winning it. Realistically, not all teams can expect to win it all, right?

It's not necessarily about the expectation, it's more about the potential. The way I view it is: if you acquire a player, is there a world where this player might be—might, which is a very low chance—the best player in this position? It doesn't have to be a guarantee, it doesn't have to be an assumption. It's just that that idea needs to be in your mind. Otherwise it feels kind of pointless. With the right amount of work, can we make these players work in a way where they can beat the best. That's not always gonna happen, but you need to be able to see the potential. Otherwise it's kind of a lost cause. Recycling players is... eh.

"If you don't see the potential in your team to win it all, there is no reason to acquire the roster in the first place."

Something that jumps to mind now is something GrabbZ said in a Reddit AMA recently. He said that players who go to NA are trading the potential to win, for more money. Do you agree with that perception, and how do you relate the LEC to this?

I think it's not completely black and white. Let's say you're not able to get on a team that is Fnatic, G2, Origen or Rogue. If you're going to be in one of the other teams, what competition are you actually obtaining? Are you going to the World Championship? It's going to be very difficult. It might happen, because it's hard to assume what's going to happen in the league. But if you can go to North America and you have a competitive team, like Broxah did: is Broxah sacrificing his competitive integrity by going to Team Liquid and probably winning two championships, minimum, if he stays for the rest of the year and then goes to MSI and the World Championship? I don't think so. I think he's making this choice with competition in mind.

If you can't be on the teams that can't be on the top levels in Europe, then you might as well go to a different major region, and go to the teams that are on the top level. I don't think it's necessarily about payout. I think in some cases the payout is in the mind. But most of the time, the scenarios I can think of, players are kind of forced into North America because they didn't get offers in the LEC, or something like that. It depends per player, of course.

I think it is more common for players on the highest level of play from Korea to come to North America for a payout. I think that's something we've seen far more often. We've seen players, at their peak, go over to North America, and then that's it.

Is it similar to how some football players go to China or some United Arab Emirates football club, to cash in?

I think it's also partially that people want to dodge their army service. [Laughs] But I don't want to speak for anyone in particular, because as I said it's not black and white. It changes from person to person. I think there are some scenarios where people are keeping competition in mind, and gaining more money just happens to be a side effect of it.

The only team of which the core remained unchanged during the offseason is G2. Is that something you expected?

It was very expected. Perkz has been pretty ruthless with the approach he has had, together with G2, in terms of acquiring the players they want. I think for now, you can still say with confidence that they have the potential to be the best player in their positions, in their own region. If you want to bet your money, you would bet your money on these five players. I think as long as that's the case, nothing's gonna change. Even though you have this idea of the team being friends and all, and having a great atmosphere, I think what really ties them together is their mentality towards winning. As long as that's shared, no change is going to happen, as long as they feel like they are the best in their position individually.

I think they are far from done. I think the third time is the charm, for Caps. I think this year they're going to recognize their mistakes, how to space out their practice and what they want to do for the future. But they're not done. For sure.

The reason I ask, is because there is a tendency within esports to overhaul teams when they didn't win the important championship title. Coming in second is often enough a reason for teams to cycle players, get a new coach et cetera. What do you think about this attitude? When you're third or second in the world, you're pretty good at the game.

I think what it comes down to is: can you imagine yourself becoming better than what you've reached? My understanding of the situation when Caps left Fnatic, is that he had a hard time imagining them reaching any further than they did. And his intuition was completely right. He joined G2, and he could imagine a higher potential than in Fnatic.

It's a mistake that have made myself as well. For example, it happened to me with the Splyce roster. We reached the World Championship. We got there with a lot of band aid solutions, we had a lot of issues, but we just looked at the good at the end of the season. Then we came into the next year, and everyone had the expectation of surpassing the previous year. This made it a lot tougher for us. The same with Vitality this year. Last year, we managed to do so much. Then the expectation was that we'd do more than that, and it was just too difficult.

So I think Caps was very wise in recognizing the situation. He realized that they got to second place, managed to dodge some of the teams that might be the most difficult to beat—they dodged RNG, they dodged KT, and then they met IG in the finals. They had to beat Cloud9 in the semis. You can say they got the second place at a World Championship, but they managed to get there with some luck, right? It was completely deserved and I'm not trying to take anything away from it, but I can understand the sentiment of wanting to move on.

You've been at the back end of the decisions to change roster. Esports is a relatively small entertainment industry, still. Is there also pressure from the higher-ups, who are looking at their profits in a world where maybe only being a champion is good enough to churn out revenue, to change rosters even if a team ended up reaching the second place at the World Championship?

It definitely happens. The cycle is so short, you know? The pressure from above, most of the time, is that they want to have success within a year, which rarely happens. Sometimes it happens in traditional sports too, but usually it's over longer periods of time. You sign a player for, let's say five years. You have a player that you're bringing up, and five years is a very long time. League of Legends' entire cycle has been ten seasons.

Let's say a team does very, very well. Most smart business owners are going to use that to sell to potential investors, to potential sponsors. Then the expectation is that the same thing or more will happen in the next year. I think, just because it's a cycle being so short, and the money becoming larger and larger, with investments growing, the pressure is definitely there from above. I can't imagine what the top organizations like Fnatic, G2, TSM, Team Liquid go through. The expectation of them being on top is always going to be there. That's the history they've built on. I imagine the pressure must be so much higher.

So for them, direct results weigh extra heavily.

For sure. It's one of the reasons why I'm so impressed by G2. Right after the first Split they ever won, they just took Zven and Mithy, and they kept winning, and winning, and winning. Then they had a year where it was rough for them, in terms of acquisitions. They had Hjarnan and Wadid—they still did super well, at the back of Perkz, Jankos and Wunder. But then right away: boom. They acquired Caps. That was just  "wow, they are very ruthless." I think when the time comes, all these teams that are raising rookies, it's just for G2 to pick up when the time comes. [Laughs]

It is something that we see in traditional sports, right? Where teams like Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Chelsea always pick up the talent, and the smaller teams have to start over again.

True. But those are the teams that have the most amount of pressure to win. A lot of teams that are successful get those 'fans' that are just following success. Those fans tend to get very angry when things go bad. If you compare it to the biggest clubs in esports, that would be the TSMs, the Fnatics, G2s and Team Liquids, right? That definitely goes hand in hand.

Do you think it's healthy that there are big teams that keep buying the talent? To me, it sounds more exciting if more teams are competitive.

I don't see a way around it. Sure, there is something tricky about it. If we look at past winners of championships in the LEC, it's only Fnatic, Alliance and G2. Alliance being an outlier. I think it comes with somewhat of a snowball effect. Winners can acquire more winners. Just as much as fans are, players are also attracted to this. So it's hard to break that. The way you do it is definitely by taking risks, as many teams are doing in the LEC.

I mentioned MAD Lions before, who have a full rookie roster with Humanoid. I have a lot of trust in their coaching staff. I think Peter Dun is a genius on his own. There is a world where it's just "holy sh*t!" and they just go above and beyond to become dominant. But there is a chance that it might not happen. I would rather have many teams that have the potential of making it big, than knowing that some team will end up being sixth.

"I have to give credit to these bigger organizations for making the right moves at the right time."

So you see the dynamic of top teams emerging, being able to pick up talent from anywhere they want, as unavoidable?

It's a natural progression, but I'm not sure if it's unavoidable. I feel that when Fnatic started winning, for example, they kept getting the best player. And at the same time, they kept taking the right risks. There was a time where they acquired Huni, and Reignover. Reignover had a reputation, Huni went through some SKT trials and was hyped up, but still everyone thought "what the f*ck is this?" And then they just destroyed everyone. The first Split they had Steeelback, and then they just grabbed Rekkles. Boom. They were ruthless in their approach.

The next year G2 came into the picture. Fnatic tried to salvage with Gamsu and Spirit—at the time, Spirit was a crazy acquisition, very hyped up. He did very well, but Fnatic didn't succeed as much as G2 did at the time. And as I said before, G2 was and is very ruthless with their acquisitions. There was always this battle between these two teams, of clever risk-taking, and also being aggressive with the idea of improvement.

This is something that the bigger clubs are doing all over the world in traditional sports. I think it's to G2's and Fnatic's credit that this is what's going on. Team Liquid is doing the same, right? They acquired Jensen. Boom. They're making changes, even though they're on top. They know that everyone below them is coming after them.

You've got to keep moving if you want to stay ahead.

Yes. So I think it's a natural progression, but I have to give credit to these bigger organizations for making the right moves at the right time.